Governor Ned Lamont and Office of Policy and Management Secretary Jeffrey Beckham have issued statements in response to the November 2023 consensus revenue forecast jointly released by the Office of Policy and Management and the Office of Fiscal Analysis. Governor Lamont highlighted the positive impact of the state’s policies, emphasizing Connecticut’s ability to reduce legacy debt and implement the largest income tax cut in state history. He underscored the significance of revenue and volatility caps, providing the state with a safeguard against economic downturns. Secretary Beckham acknowledged a softening in revenue projections but emphasized the overall positive fiscal position. He stressed the importance of adhering to the constitutional spending cap during budget adjustments for fiscal year 2025 and advocated avoiding gimmicks that circumvent fiscal guardrails.

According to the consensus revenue forecast, projected revenues have decreased by a net $57.1 million from the October 20 letter to the comptroller, but they remain $24.4 million higher than the adopted budget. The Office of Policy and Management anticipates ending fiscal year 2024 with a surplus. The downward revisions in personal income tax and pass-through entity tax are attributed to weaker-than-anticipated trends in estimated payments. However, federal grants have increased by $138.5 million due to the final reconciliation of funds earned for medical services in the second half of fiscal year 2023. Investment income has risen by $60 million, reflecting higher interest rates and greater assets under state management. The transfer to the budget reserve fund pursuant to the volatility cap is expected to be $478.5 million, with half allocated to pension liabilities and the remainder to boost the budget reserve fund. Special transportation fund revenues decreased by $11.5 million, primarily in the highway use tax, but interest income rose by $8.2 million.